AL MVP Considerations

September 11th, 2008 (Loaded from e-mail)

Don't look now, but Justin Morneau is making a serious case for his second MVP award in three years. From what I can see, the AL MVP is a three-horse race right now - Josh Hamilton of the Rangers, Dustin Pedroia of the Red Sox, and Morneau. I suppose Cliff Lee and K-Rod merit consideration as well but I am of the belief that the pitchers shouldn't be winning the MVP unless they have a truly extraordinary season, the Cy Young is their award. That said, K-Rod could be having a truly extraordinary season, but that's beside the point.

Josh Hamilton beats Morneau in some very important statistical categories. He has 31 homers to Morneau's 23 and 124 RBIs, which leads the AL, to Morneau's 120. The two are tied in runs and Morneau has a slight edge in average and OBP. Here are the knocks on Hamilton: he was on fire early and has been cooling off over the last couple of months. It's pretty unlikely his team will make the playoffs. My buddy Olerio showed me his home-road splits. At home, he has been incredible, hitting .350 with 73 RBIs. On the road, he hits a meager .255 with 51 RBIs. He plays in a hitter's ballpark, so that could explain some stat inflation there.

Pedroia has been the best player on the Red Sox this year. He's batting .328 with 78 RBIs and 112 runs (which leads the majors). The Red Sox are starting to seem like a lock for the playoffs and are making a strong push to win the East. It's hard to find many flaws with him at the moment. While his average is 20 points higher than Morneau's, Morenau holds a slight edge in OBP.

Runs created is a stat that allows you to compare a runs guy vs. an RBI guy in an MVP race. The stat is Runs plus RBIs minus home runs. Homers are subtracted because an HR only counts for one run in a game but counts as a run and an RBI. This stat show the total number of runs that you have supplied for your team. Hamilton's runs created is 124+89-31=182. Pedroia's runs created is 78+112-17=173. Morneau's runs created is 119+89-23=185, which leads the AL.

It looks like there is a good chance the AL MVP will hinge on the AL East and AL Central playoff races, if the Twins win the Central, I think you gotta give it to Morneau.